A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the political, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely split population where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or activists are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two essays that strive for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments cover identity markers, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the notion that there might be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must work out what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless official who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but both parties has got valuable insights to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the discussion, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
